China's Future

China's Future

Book - 2016
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China's future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper.

Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world's leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime's power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate?

In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China's leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China's future for all those seeking to understand the country's likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.

Publisher: Cambridge : 2016. Polity,
ISBN: 9781509507146
Branch Call Number: ANF 951.06 SHAM
Characteristics: xvi, 203 pages : illustrations ; 22 cm

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guangxia
Aug 16, 2016

page 44: "Chinese do not win Nobel prizes for their research, ..." Tu Youyou, a mainland Chinese scientist without receiving any training overseas, won 2015 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine with other two. The author did mention a IMF SDR event (30 November 2015 or error within 2-3 days) but was unaware of the above mentioned one occurred earlier (announced October 2015 or early November?).

It is a common sense that the individual innovative ability is a gifted one and is unable to create through education. The education can only improve one's skill and capacity of doing sth well, but definitely not the innovation ability. ...

There are too many other pitfalls with his narratives. In short, the author predicts from a liberal ideological viewpoint, rather than a realistic position, on some partial information about China.

s
StarGladiator
May 18, 2016

I hate to comment positively on an author who also belongs to the Brookings Institution, which I abhor as much as the Heritage Foundation [no, Brookings isn't liberal or non-partisan, regardless of what dishonest newsies so proclaim], but overall I agree with Shambaugh's thesis. I differ in that I believe war of some sort is inevitable - - it may be by accident, or planned by the oligarchs of both China and America!
China has been building an extensive road system throughout Southeast Asia, connecting China through that area to the oceans. While China has been undertaking insensitive and politically incorrect projects in Africa and Latin America, the World Bank [which wouldn't touch those same projects] is then financing and supporting infrastructure projects within China! [Something of a quid-pro-quo situation, I'm afraid to say!] Take that, along with those artificial islands China has built and then manned with missile batteries and interceptor aircraft, one begains to see a hegemonic strategy of expansion and control.

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